Is Pizza Perennially Profitable?

While many segments of the restaurant industry arecost, has come down in cost in recent months.
struggling to stay afloat, pizza concepts in large partHurteau noted that he's "seen commodity prices
seem to be well positioned to weather the currentimproving" as "cheese and flour were as high as 50%
economy. There seem to be at least three distinctup in 2008." Barsness says Incredible Pizza has
reasons for this - sales don't appear to be slumping as"already seen that" when asked about their cheese
much for pizza outlets as in other segments,prices coming down. Berger of Figaro's had checked
commodity prices for pizza staples have adjustedcheese prices the day we spoke and saw the price at
very favorably, and the value-centric focus of today's$1.20 per pound, compared to a 2008 price he recalled
dining customer meshes well with pizza's marketto be as high as $2.40 per pound. Berger does expect
positioning.the price to rise somewhat in the near future as "that
When I asked several leaders in the pizza segmentprice is simply not sustainable for suppliers to maintain
their observations on sales trends, there were variedindefinitely." While many commodity prices are starting
responses. Art Hurteau, President of A&M Pizza,to or have already come down from 2008 high's, pizza
a franchisee of Domino's with 14 stores and 3producers in particular appear to be enjoying major
seasonal venues in Missouri, told me that, "While 2008price improvements on the largest staples of their
was rough, as it was for most, 2009 has started outproduct.
much better for us, though not as good as 2007." RickAnother trend pizza seems to be benefiting from is
Barsness, President of Incredible Pizza Company, isthe customer's current laser-focus on value. Pizza has
"hoping to have even comps...no ups, no downs...andalways been a value driven product, with coupons a
that is where we are so far this year." That is adriving force of a major portion of sales for many. The
preferred position for most in the industry compared toprice point of pizza, when coupled with a coupon,
where they are. Ron Berger, Chairman of the 125 unitseems more attractive to the consumer than ever
Figaro's Pizza franchise group, sees a mixed bag ofright now. Barsness told me, "Mom wants a deal and is
sales trends from his franchisees. "Since the start oflooking for the coupon." Hurteau has noticed a change
2008, we have some stores up 30-40% in sales andin customer choice, driven by price point. His group has
some down equally as much." The variations in trendsseen a good response to Domino's oven-baked
were seen to be "geographically sensitive" in Berger'ssandwich, even after the promotion ended. He told me
view. Not everyone in the pizza business is as positivethat research indicates the customer "likes the flavor
or neutral in opinion though. Jim Fox, President of Fox'sprofile and the price." Figaro's seems to be benefiting
Pizza Den, says that while he's not a "doom andmore than some concepts as they offer both baked
gloom guy", he sees 2009 as a "total disaster for thepizzas and a Take 'n Bake product, a freshly prepared,
whole food industry." While he has many leads foruncooked pizza which typically sells for $1-$2 less than
franchisees to help him grow his brand, Fox noted thatthe baked version. Berger says the lower price is
the banks have "dried up" on financing and that peopleattractive to many consumers. "Since the Take 'n
he used to be able to help get financed are no longerBake pizzas can be delivered and qualify for
qualified. Though varied, the general mood of the pizzagovernment assistance programs, we see about 10%
segment seems to be less dire than many otherof our business coming from this demographic right
segments in the industry when it comes to salesnow." Berger believes his franchise is currently the only
trends.to offer both baked and unbaked pizzas.
Commodity prices have affected every restaurant inIt appears that while none in the restaurant industry will
the nation. Of late it seems that a correction in severalcome out of the current market downturn unscathed,
product prices that matter considerably tothe pizza segment appears, broadly speaking, to be in
pizza-makers has offered them some relief. Cheesea position to avoid much of the pain many other types
and flour, which makes up a large portion of a pizza'sof restaurants are feeling.